Idol Polls: The Top 6

by Jason Hughes, posted Apr 24th 2008 3:21PM
Carly SmithsonWelcome back to our weekly American Idol polls round-up. Each week we look at various online polls that were conducted from the end of last week's results up to the performance show Tuesday. And then a few that were conducted after the performance show, but before the results were revealed.

This way we can analyze how the week's performances affected a contestant's overall popularity, which turns out to be not very much except in a few select cases. The contestants certainly had an incredible challenge this week with the works of Andrew Lloyd Webber, but while some really rose to the challenge, it didn't seem to matter one bit when it came down to the final voting. Does this mean that the public has already decided who they like? It doesn't matter how well or horribly they do from here on out because voters have already decided who they like? Or was it just a fluke week where people assumed their favorites safer than they were?

WEEK-TO-WEEK POLLS (PRE-PERFORMANCE)


Guide to the polls:
Position - [change from last week] Contestant (Percentage of votes)

AOL
1 - [+2] David Cook (29.3%)
2 - [-1] Jason Castro (15.9%)
3 - [-1] David Archuleta (14.9%)
4 - [=] Brooke White (13.8%)
5 - [-1] Carly Smithson (13.2%) <--
6 - [+1] Syesha Mercado (13.0%)
The Cook reclaims his top spot on AOL, as well as most other charts. There's not a lot of action here, but the race is tightening up a lot by these percentages. Other than David Cook's impressive lead. the remaining six contestants are all within three percentage points of one another. I wonder if the real voting is anywhere near that close? If so, it could be anyone in any given week that goes.

TV Guide
1 - [=] David Cook (54.6%)
2 - [=] David Archuleta (24.4%)
3 - [=] Jason Castro (9.9%)
4 - [+1] Carly Smithson (5.2%) <--
5 - [-1] Brooke White (4.9%)
6 - [+1] Syesha Mercado (1.0%)
Most of the polls have everything pretty well locked down with very little movement. but it remains awesomely hilarious that each week as someone above her in the polls is eliminated, Syesha only bumps up to the new last place in the polls. Clearly somebody likes her, and after this past week's amazing performance followed by her fifth place finish in the voters, those somebodies better rally the troops and get those phones buzzing. I'll be interested to see if TVGuide.com voters rank her any higher after the sultry powerhouse performance she gave Tuesday.

VoteFair.org
1 - [=] David Archuleta (38.9%)
2 - [=] Jason Castro (27.6%)
3 - [=] David Cook (22.8%)
4 - [=] Brooke White (5.0%)
5 - [=] Carly Smithson (3.7%) <--
6 - [+1] Syesha Mercado (2.0%)
This one's just hilarious. Nothing ever changes except to eliminate who was voted out and everyone move up to fill the gap. I expect we'll see the same this upcoming week. These people are nothing if not consistent.

AFTER-PERFORMANCE POLLS

AOL
1 - [+1] David Cook (32.1%)
2 - [-1] David Archuleta (25.1%)
3 - [-2] Jason Castro (20.7%)
4 - [+2] Carly Smithson (8.5%) <--
5 - [-1] Brooke White (7.2%)
6 - [+1] Syesha Mercado (6.3%)
Webber week threw several contestants, particularly Jason Castro and Brooke White. Not coincidentally, both slipped a bit in these polls. Nevertheless, after the performances, once again the ladies fell almost completely out of the competition per AOL's voting.

TV Squad
1 - [=] David Cook (55.8%)
2 - [=] David Archuleta (15.1%)
3 - [+4] Carly Smithson (13.5%) <--
4 - [+1] Syesha Mercado (9.5%)
5 - [-2] Jason Castro (3.6%)
6 - [=] Brooke White (2.3%)
You guys right here at TV Squad have pretty much already crowned David Cook this year's champ. As usual, though, the TVS votes tend to be more reactive to the individual week's performances, as evidenced by the rise of Carly and Syesha and the drop of Jason.

Dial Idol
1 - [=] David Cook (8.2)
2 - [=] David Archuleta (6.1)
3 - [+4] Syesha Mercado (4.9)
4 - [-1] Jason Castro (4.6)
5 - [+1] Brooke White (3.9)
6 - [-1] Carly Smithson (3.4)<--
Okay, DialIdol is always a tricky pony as it's not really a poll but an analysis of busy signals. As such, what we have is a "score" rather than a percentage. To find out how that works, go to DialIdol and read about it there. And yet, interestingly, Syesha wasn't anywhere near the bottom here. Since Idol doesn't disclose the vote totals I wonder if they always put the true lowest vote-getters in their Bottom Threes and Twos? Maybe Syesha didn't come in second-to-last but they wanted to create more dramatics by having her be there? Or are they trying to rally her fans by scaring them to push her back up the rankings so that Brooke has a better chance to go next week? Or do we all think way, way, way, way way too much about all of this?

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Jim

I just want to go on record saying that if David Cook gets the boot next week (fat chance, I know!), I predicted the final four on March 7:

"My top boy and girl are still David A. and Syesha. For runners up, I'm going with Jason Castro and Brooke."

That was the week David Cook sang Hello, which was impressive, but I wasn't on the bandwagon until I heard him do Billie Jean.

It's going to be an exciting final run, no matter what.

April 25 2008 at 6:10 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
Dave

It looks like David Cook has been receiving more votes in different polls than David Archuleta. It could mean that talent will outwin popularity on American Idol. I just wonder where Jason and Brooke are getting all their votes from. Who's voting for them? I thought all the young girls are voting for Archuleta.

April 24 2008 at 9:38 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
nickmagoo

i've stopped watching. it's not even ironically funny anymore, just painful. i can only record 2 shows at a time, and a.i. lost out to ncis and, i believe, nova on pbs.

i found myself ff'ing through ai so much i maybe saw 12 minutes of any given show...). i can read what happens here and vftw.com, and imagine exactly how categorically annoying each performance was, and thank my lucky stars i didn't actually watch it...although next week is neil diamond, and i LOVES me some 'kentucky rain' and 'cherry cherry.' and no, not in an ironic way.

April 24 2008 at 6:00 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
Kirby

I tend to think that Occam's Razor comes into play. American Idol is tremendously popular. A voting scandal is one of the few things that could sour people on it. So, it's very high risk for them to tamper with things, and there's really little reason to do so. There's enough random chaos in the system to provide some surprises to keep it interesting, and good people will tend to do well whether they screw around or not.

And, if it really were faked, would Taylor Hicks have won? For the studio, they care about who gets stuck with the recording contract, and it wasn't a shock that he wasn't going to sell as well as Daughtry. He had commercial success written all over him, and they had every incentive to manipulate him to the top, and didn't. So, I think the results are legit. Fits the facts better.

Now, the last few Ohio presidential votes, on the other hand.... :-)

April 24 2008 at 5:52 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply

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