What Does the Jay Leno Shake-Up Mean for David Letterman?

David Letterman was in rare form last night, firing off merciless fusillades of jokes about the late-night woes of his former network NBC and his longtime rival Jay Leno. But Leno could have the last laugh if NBC gets to remake its late-night schedule the way it wants to. And Letterman could be the one who suffers the most from the new arrangement.

Letterman is currently riding high in the late-night ratings wars, easily beating new timeslot rival Conan O'Brien. That could change, however, if, as NBC hopes, Leno takes the half-hour from 11:35PM to 12:05AM, followed by O'Brien's 'Tonight Show' and then, at 1:05AM, 'Late Night With Jimmy Fallon.'

In that scenario, Letterman would once again be competing directly with Leno, who routinely beat him in the Nielsens for 14 years. Plus, a shortened Leno show will play to the former 'Tonight' host's strengths (his monologues, his pre-taped outdoor segments) while minimizing his weaknesses (his interviews). So Letterman could be facing an even stronger, tighter Leno program than the one that regularly clobbered his 'Late Show.'

VIDEO: Letterman Mocks NBC Debacle, 'Big Jaw' Leno

And then, at 12:05, by which time Letterman's show has shifted from gags to guests, he'll be competing against Conan's monologue and comedy segments. (Not to mention Jimmy Kimmel's monologue and comedy bits over at ABC.)

Dave's Advice to NBC, from 'The Late Show With David Letterman'


If the NBC strategy succeeds and makes ratings winners out of Leno and O'Brien, the loser might not only be Letterman but also Letterman's follow-up, Craig Ferguson. (After all, it's not as if Conan's viewers are likely to switch mid-show to watch Craig at 12:35, even though Craig does the best monologue in the business.) Plus, a strengthened O'Brien would help Jimmy Fallon, currently struggling in the ratings against Ferguson.

Dave's Monologue, Jan. 11, 2010, from 'The Late Show With David Letterman'


Then again, suppose NBC fails to get the line-up it wants, and Conan defects to Fox. Fox would put him on at 11, giving him a 35-minute head start, so again, his viewers probably wouldn't then flip to CBS in mid-show to watch Dave.

At least Dave seems to be guaranteed the support of CBS, which has stuck by him through good times and lean times over the last 17 years (unlike fickle NBC). But then, what other choice does CBS have? Unless an exiled NBC host shows up looking for work...

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