Who Will Win 'American Idol'?

by Jane Boursaw, posted Apr 5th 2010 9:00AM
American Idol, Season 9, Top 9
The 'American Idol' season nine finale is still a ways off, but I'm ready to start talking about who I think will win. I'm tempted to say that the judges missed the boat on some of the contestants who made it (or rather, didn't make it) into the Top 24, but that's not really fair. Sometimes a contestant will shine during the auditions and Hollywood Week, but once they get to the big stage, nerves or a lack of confidence take over, and it shows in the live performances.

If 'Idol' moves on to another season, I'd like to see more behind-the-scenes footage with the Top 12 -- more scenes of the music coaching, what the contestants go through making those all-important song choices, and what goes into the hair and wardrobe we see on stage. Future wish-list aside, follow me after the jump for more analysis on the remaining contestants, and my choice for the winner.

Andrew Garcia. I have to agree with Simon, in that while Andrew has a really nice voice, he's forgettable and boring (and I apologize in advance to his mother for saying that). Nothing about him really stands out for me, and once he leaves the stage, I totally forget what he sang. If Andrew is going to stay relevant in the competition, he'll need to up his game and do something that makes us go, "Wow!" Otherwise, he may be out of the running in the next few weeks.

Michael Lynche, American Idol, Season 9Michael Lynche. I love Michael's upbeat R&B performances, but found last week's 'Ready For Love' to be a bit boring, despite the judges' high marks. Like Ellen, I'll pre-boo myself on that, because I feel really bad saying it. Michael has such a big heart and a loving soul, and that's what he needs to bring to the stage week after week. He'll last a good while, but I don't think he'll be the last person standing.

Katie Stevens. Despite Simon's thought that she fits nicely into a country niche, I'm going with Kara on this one. I see Katie as a Demi Lovato/Selena Gomez-type pop singer who'll develop a nice fan base of young-ish girls. While there's no doubt that she improves every week, she's not as natural a performer as some of the other contestants. That's not necessarily a bad thing, but you can tell she has to work at it.

Casey James. Casey is consistently good in his particular guitar-rock genre, but the fact that he does pretty much the same thing week after week might be a deterrent to him going all the way. Even though we've had some rockers who've won in the past, I don't think that will happen this year. I can't see Casey doing a David Cook 'Billie Jean' performance, but it could happen.

American Idol, Crystal BowersoxCrystal Bowersox. Despite her comments to the contrary, Crystal sometimes comes off as a little full of herself, like she thinks she'll win the competition hands down. In reality, I don't believe she's that way at all -- I think she's humble and grateful to be there, not to mention a natural talent -- but that's the vibe she puts out, which could hurt her with the voting public. I predict that Crystal will be one of the last to be eliminated, and everyone will cry foul on the voting and say she was unfairly booted. She'll have a great career anyway -- probably better than if she wins, because then she won't be constrained by the 'American Idol' machine.

Tim Urban. 'Teflon Tim' is a dark horse, because while he's technically not as good as any of the other singers, he has a big fan base and seems totally un-phased by the judges' harsh critiques week after week. As I've noted before -- and he said as much last week -- I believe he's just delighted to be there, no matter what the judges or bloggers say about him. It would be amazing if he actually won, and there's a slim possibility it could happen. I'm actually secretly rooting for it, because there's a message in there about smiling while all around you a storm is brewing.

Lee DeWyze. Lee's confidence has been growing each week, but it still might be the one thing that keeps him from winning the competition. Clearly, he's one of the best singers of the remaining contestants. If he continues to perform like he did last week with 'Treat Her Like a Lady,' there's a chance he could win.

Siobhan Magnus. Look, Siobhan has a great voice, but I agree with Simon that the screaming is getting old. That said, she could pull an Adam Lambert 'Mad World' performance out of her hat, and that will be a gamer changer for her. Siobhan may be one of the last Idol's standing, but I don't think she'll win. That honor will go to ...

Aaron Kelly. Aaron has everything going for him. He's super-confident at 16 years old, he has a dedicated fan base that includes not only tween girls, but also their moms and everyone in between, he can sing virtually any type of music, and he continues to improve each week. So that's my prediction -- Aaron Kelly for the win.

Who will win 'American Idol'?
Andrew Garcia28 (0.9%)
Michael Lynche75 (2.5%)
Katie Stevens41 (1.4%)
Casey James198 (6.6%)
Crystal Bowersox1281 (42.4%)
Tim Urban46 (1.5%)
Lee DeWyze967 (32.0%)
Siobhan Magnus248 (8.2%)
Aaron Kelly134 (4.4%)

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I think that the Final four will be Crystal, Casey, Siobhan and Lee. However, Lee he hasn't shown me that much except that he has a somewhat strong baritone voice. No performance skills and terrible pitch problems. He does sing from his heart though, and has a nice tone.
Crystal is a brilliant talent. Will probably be better off not winning. Whether or not she sells is TBD. I think she may. People are hungry for something more genuine, less processed. The pendulum always swings back.
Siobhan may be the one who wins...has a big fan base and is just probably quirky and talented enough. But she'll have to hold up under the pressures.
Casey has been unfairly objectified, and underestimated. He is better than some people are saying and has a big fan base. His voice sounds great recorded, he shines onstage, handles pressure, and he will switch it up very soon; he's playing it smart. Not peaking too early. He, like Crystal may be better off NOT winning. The AI stigma for a blues artist might work against him but the exposure will work for him. But, a lot of game is left. He could win, and he will sell, if marketed right. The pendulum, again, will swing, toward the roots of good music. (blues etc)
Any of those four theoretically could win, but it is early and a lot of changes will occur. Lee isn't likely to, because he hasn't been solid. At this stage of the competition David Cook had done Hello, All Right Now, Eleanor Rigby and Billie Jean!!!! (just to put to rest the DC comparisons w/Lee)
Aaron is a good young singer but he won't win. Not even Archie won and he was technically better. But Aaron has a good future if he keeps at it.
Mike is a good singer with a strong velvet-y voice but he is off-putting and old fashioned. He sings AT me not to me. Too aggressive. Last week was better. But he has no chance of winning.
Katie is a good example of a nice tone but no soul or emotional connection to go with. She's too pitchy also! It's Top Nine and she still has pitch problems. They aren't gonna go away overnight! She is boring. In there for the tweens and teens.
Bottom line for me though is that they will push for a GIRL to win - bigtime. Most likely Siobhan of the two best girls unless she falls apart.
I even think they will push for a girl-girl finale if they can. And, the most important thing is the career after Idol..

April 06 2010 at 5:56 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply

i wish bowersox would sing janis joplin "oh lord won"t u bring me a mercedes benz" absolute song for her, out
of all the singers they heardsomebody couldn't hear
very good, i really don't like anybody, give me adam back
look at how many people have looked at his website?
thousands, i'd even like taylor,

April 06 2010 at 5:45 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply

It's not a tough decision for me. The most talented person left on the show is Casey. He's proved he can sing the balads with ease, and make us feel it, and that includes the country Keith Urban song he did. He's proved he can push his vocals out there with the best of them with his more rock tunes. And R&B week he blew me away with "Hold on I'm Coming"! He showed vocal ability, excellent guitar skills (I know, it's not a guitar competition) and personality. He has been a bit 'stiff' in the past, but Casey is coming around and showing off his personality more every week. I believe he can take the title this year if he keeps up his good song choice and great vocals.
Crystal, will probably be there in the final 3, but I don't see her winning, because honestly, I DO remember the Janis Joplin era, and I got bored with it easily. It all sounds the same, and although Crystal did do something different, I'm just not digging her. She seems a bit cocky too.
And the 3rd contestant in the final 3, will either be Siobhan or Lee. I'm not sure which one will be 3rd, but if Siobhan will stop that incessant screaming at the end of every song, she very well could be the one. Then again, if Lee keeps on improving like he did last week, he could very well take that 3rd spot away from her.

April 06 2010 at 2:57 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply

Perhaps I'm not old enough to reminisce as Janice Joplin was years before my time. I just don't get the same pleasure from songs from the past, nor do I dwell on past times. I'm looking for a new artist in my American Idol, someone who has the potential to bring a new sound or song that will create a landmark in music history, just as the Janis Joplin of her time. Not looking for someone to recreate the past nor someone to copy cat a sound for me to reminisce, my time is now and the future. There is only one contestant who has that versatile, fearless, dynamic potential this year.

April 05 2010 at 11:26 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply

Crystal hasnt peeked yet. She still has way more to show and many more surprises up her sleeve. This girl will be the winner of american idol no matter what. She will succeed just like Kelly Clarkson. Mark my words.

April 05 2010 at 10:45 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply

Oh, I forgot to add about Crystal and her demeanor: She appears to be quite genuine to me, and it is probably a little embarrassing to her to have to "hawk her wares" on such a platform, but realistically, in todays world, you have to get noticed somehow and I am sure she was pushed into trying out, and if this is the only way the public is going to find out about her, then so be it. She's going to be a star now, one way or another. I also think Lee has a great voice and Casey is adorable, but Crystal should definitely win.

April 05 2010 at 6:18 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply

I think Crystal is incredibly talented. I grew up in the '70's and was never a fan of Janis Joplin, but Crystal actually reminds me of her only 100 times better. I love to hear Crystal sing, and I look forward to hearing her every week. I have never wanted to see any of the "American Idol" people in concert until now. Crystal is in another stratosphere.

April 05 2010 at 6:02 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply

I think it's going to become intense between Crystal and Siobhan while everyone else gets kicked off. Lee will get into the top 3 with them, then Crystal will fold under the pressure. Siobhan will win because she will have more mass appeal at that point.

From that poll Siobhan doesn't look like a favorite, but I'm fairly confident she will win. She has no inhibition and seems to do well under pressure. I want Crystal to win, but I think she'll fall under pressure. Her cynicism will eat her alive.

April 05 2010 at 4:40 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
1 reply to j0phus's comment

Absolutely right...Sox never seems comfortable to me, and has no stage presence...Magnus has great stage presence, doesn't appear too nervous, and has a great voice, but just chooses the worst songs, and borders on bizarre. This could be a good thing. With more training and proper song choice, Magnus could be very good, if not that great. My husband and I do not think Sox will win. It's anybody's guess....

April 07 2010 at 5:29 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply

if aaron kelly wins, i will never watch this show again. he just simply isnt the best there is and if he somehow wins, it just shows how much of an influence all the little girls have on this show. crystal is so much better then everybody else on this show and if she doesnt win, something is wrong

April 05 2010 at 2:57 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply

t think Magnus is going to "hit one out of the park" real soon.crystal will be apearing at a subway station near you real soon.

April 05 2010 at 1:52 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply

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