Emmy Picks: Best Supporting Actress in a Comedy

Over the next few days, I'll be listing the Emmy nominees in the major categories and giving you picks and possible dark horses. Feel free to agree, disagree, and make your own picks in the comments.
Yesterday, I made my pick in the Best Supporting Actor in a Drama category. Today, I look at what seems to be the biggest lock of the night: the Best Supporting Actress in a Comedy category.
Nominees:
Julie Bowen, 'Modern Family'
Jane Krakowski, '30 Rock'
Jane Lynch, 'Glee'
Holland Taylor, 'Two and a Half Men'
Sofia Vergara, 'Modern Family'
Kristen Wiig, 'Saturday Night Live'
Who will win: Jane Lynch. No doubt about it. 'Glee' was the most popular new show of the season, and she was the most popular member of that show's humongous cast. Lynch deserved all the press she got; even though her character of Sue Sylvester drifted into cartoonish territory at times, she was compelling to watch, and her presence was missed in the few episodes where she was rarely or not used. Also, Lynch is a veteran character actor finally getting her chance to shine. The Academy loves those kinds of stories.
Who should win: Lynch. This is one of the few categories where "will" and "should" are the same. There are about a half-dozen episodes that she could have submitted for award consideration. 'Wheels,' for instance, comes to mind; in that episode, the scene where Lynch visits her sister with Down syndrome showed that she could tone it down and give Sue some depth. But Lynch chose to submit 'The Power of Madonna,' and for good reason: it was a Sue Sylvester tour de force. The video remake of 'Vogue' alone should get her the title.
Dark Horse: It's hard to call her a dark horse since she's been nominated so many times, but Holland Taylor could take the statuette for a few of reasons: 1) There's a 'Glee' backlash and the show gets shut out; 2) Bowen and Vergara from 'Modern Family' could cancel each other out, 3) '30 Rock' has had an off year, ruling out Krakowski, and 4) There were too many good performances this year to justify giving the award for the first time to an 'SNLer' like Wiig. If Lynch doesn't win (which is doubtful), I could see Taylor walking away with the prize.
Who do you think will take home the Emmy?
(Follow @joelkeller on Twitter.)

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