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NBC's 10PM Dramas Trail Last Year's 'Jay Leno Show' Ratings
by Gary Susman, posted Oct 26th 2010 1:30PM
Was Jeff Zucker right all along? The NBC boss was vilified last year for scrapping NBC's entire slate of 10PM dramas and replacing them with 'The Jay Leno Show,' a move that turned out to be both a ratings and PR disaster, one that led to Leno's hasty return to 'The Tonight Show' and the network's costly and embarrassing loss of Conan O'Brien.This year, however, the fall dramas NBC has aired at 10PM have largely failed to draw even a paltry 'Jay Leno Show'-sized audience among the key 18-to-49 demographic, with one of those dramas, Friday night's 'Outlaw,' already canceled and replaced with news standby 'Dateline.'
Not that CBS and ABC should gloat; judging by the trouble those networks are also having at 10PM, maybe Zucker was right, and scripted dramas simply don't work at 10PM anymore.
As noted by both TV by the Numbers and Deadline, recent weeks have seen NBC's 10PM shows hovering near the same ratings points levels as 'The Jay Leno Show' among the 18-to-49 group. In week three of this season, for instance, the network's average nightly rating was 1.68 -- same as a year ago when 'Jay Leno' was on every weeknight.
Some nights were better than last year ('Chase' on Mondays,' 'Law & Order: Los Angeles' on Wednesdays); some were worse ("Outlaw' on Fridays, reality show 'The Apprentice' on Thursdays). Tuesday's 'Parenthood,' an expensive ensemble drama with a large cast, drew the same 2.1 rating the 'Leno' show used to; both benefited from having 'The Biggest Loser' as a lead-in.
'Outlaw's' ratings were low enough to get it yanked after just three weeks, but replacing it with 'Deadline' still hasn't put Fridays back at last year's levels; the first 'Dateline' scored a 1.3 rating, compared to 1.4 a year ago. Meanwhile, 'Chase' dipped to a 1.5 rating, same as 'Leno' on Mondays last year.
CBS and ABC have also added some high-profile 10PM dramas. And while CBS' 'Hawaii Five-O' is doing well on Mondays (and surely crimping the ratings of 'Chase'), it's only doing so-so with 'The Defenders' on Wednesdays and 'Blue Bloods' on Fridays. Meanwhile ABC is struggling with Tuesday night's 'Detroit 1-8-7' and especially Wednesday night's 'The Whole Truth,' a show low-rated enough to be in danger of being next on the chopping block.
The prevailing theory for the low ratings: 10PM is the hour when viewers with DVRs watch the shows they recorded earlier in the evening or earlier in the week.
There are some positive notes for NBC. All of its 10PM shows get a boost when the number of DVR viewers is added in. Plus, according to Advertising Age, all the new 10PM shows are drawing a higher fee for a 30-second commercial spot than the rates 'Leno' commanded last year. (Only 'Outlaw' had lower average ad fees, another reason why it's already gone.)
Then again, the 'Leno' show was supposedly cheaper to produce than any of NBC's scripted dramas (one of Zucker's reasons for creating it), so it didn't need to earn as much from commercials in order to break even. The Leno ads may have topped out at about $66,000 (for a 30-second spot on the Tuesday edition), while the new dramas range from $81,000 (for "L&O:LA') to $100,000 (for 'Parenthood'), but it's not clear whether that's enough to make any of these shows profitable.
Nor is it clear whether viewers who watch the new 10PM shows on DVR are skipping the ads, 'Leno's' viewers tended to watch live -- which sponsors love.
At least NBC is back in the good graces of some of the important players it alienated last year, including producers who create scripted dramas and local affiliates who saw 'Leno' as hurting their 11PM newscasts. Then again, the new shows aren't doing any better at providing a strong lead-in for local newscasts, and the drama producers have to be nervous about how quickly NBC was willing to toss 'Outlaw' overboard.
So maybe a cheap, DVR-proof show at 10PM last year was the right move after all. Or maybe the slide is irreversible, and there's no way to create a 10PM show that's inexpensive, can command high ad rates, and is appointment television that viewers feel they have to watch live.
•Follow Gary Susman on Twitter @garysusman.
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