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Golden Globes TV Predictions: Who Will Win vs. Who Should Win
by Maureen Ryan, posted Jan 13th 2011 2:50PM
By Maureen Ryan and Joel KellerThe 68th Annual Golden Globe Awards are this Sunday, and, while much of the buzz is going to be on the movie side of the ledger, the night's television awards are always fun to watch. For one thing, they're unpredictable, and not a harbinger of who will or won't win Emmys. Steve Carell, for instance, hasn't won an Emmy for 'The Office' yet, but got a Globe the first time he was nominated.
But the second reason is that it's a good way for TV fans to stop and take a break from the winter weekend doldrums and pay tribute to the year on the tube that just passed. It's not as "important" as the Emmys, but it's at least as much fun.
To that end, TV Squad critics Maureen Ryan and Joel Keller have decided to face off and give their picks for each of the television categories. In each, they'll pick who in their heart of hearts they think should take the Globe home, but they'll also pick who is most likely to take it home. After all, the Globes are the Globes, where logic and common sense sometimes take a holiday.
Best Drama Series'Mad Men,' AMC
'The Good Wife,' CBS
'Boardwalk Empire,' HBO
'The Walking Dead,' AMC
'Dexter,' Showtime
Joel's pick: 'Mad Men.' Of course, if the HFPA saw fit to nominate 'Breaking Bad,' I would have picked that show. But because they didn't, I have to go with the show I enjoyed nearly as much this year, and that just happens to be 'Mad Men.' So much could have gone wrong as Matt Weiner took a creative torch to the show's universe as the show entered its fourth season. But his season-long exploration that led from the question "Who is Don Draper?" was intriguing at times, riveting at others.
Who will win: 'Mad Men'
Mo's pick: 'Mad Men.' Some shows begin their long creative declines in their fourth year, but in some ways, it felt as though 'Mad Men' was just getting started in season 4. It didn't just offer Jon Hamm yet another chance to show off is incredible skills, it allowed us to see the characters' histories and relationships advance in new and unexpected ways. 'Mad Men' hasn't stopped taking chances, and this year that go-for-broke mentality paid off in sensationally entertaining and moving ways.
Who will win: 'Mad Men'
Best Comedy Series'Glee,' Fox
'30 Rock,' NBC
'The Big Bang Theory,' CBS
'Modern Family,' ABC
'The Big C,' Showtime
Joel's pick: 'Modern Family.' The fact that it won the Best Comedy Emmy after its first season wasn't an accident. Unlike most comedies that need at least a half a season to find their footing, 'Family' came out of the gate with an expertly-written and acted pilot and rarely made a misstep during its first season. It's barely skipped a beat during its second season, something that the more-hyped second year show 'Glee' can't claim.
Who will win: 'Glee.' It's just the type of show the HFPA loves to honor, whether it's deserved or not.
Mo's pick: 'Modern Family.' There's still a freshness and friskiness to this comedy, and the show's uniformly excellent cast continues to impress every week.
Who will win: 'The Big Bang Theory.'
Best Actor, DramaSteve Buscemi, 'Boardwalk Empire'
Michael C. Hall, 'Dexter'
Jon Hamm, 'Mad Men',
Hugh Laurie, 'House'
Bryan Cranston, 'Breaking Bad'
Joel's pick: Jon Hamm. Normally, I'd pick Bryan Cranston. But, upon reflection, while Cranston did his usual fine job portraying the developing evil in 'Breaking Bad's' Walter White, the season was as big team effort, highlighted by Aaron Paul's tortured portrayal of Jesse Pinkman. Meanwhile, the emotional weight of 'Mad Men's' fourth season was put squarely on Hamm's shoulders, and he portrayed Draper's roller-coaster emotions well.
Who will win: Michael C. Hall. He got the Globe last year, and there's no reason to think he won't be selected again.
Mo's pick: Jon Hamm. The smooth, suave Don Draper of the show's early years was deeply compelling, especially when we saw cracks beginning to develop in his carefully crafted facade. In season 4, as his life collapsed around him, Hamm did especially wonderful work, allowing us to see the pain that occupied the center of Don's existence even as he may have found a way to move past it. It was exhilarating and astonishing to watch.
Who will win: Michael C. Hall.
Best Actress, DramaJulianna Margulies, 'The Good Wife'
Piper Perabo, 'Covert Affairs'
Elisabeth Moss, 'Mad Men
Kyra Sedgwick, 'The Closer'
Katey Sagal, 'Sons of Anarchy'
Joel's pick: Piper Perabo. Just kidding... it's actually Juliana Margulies. Her nuanced portrayal of Alicia Florrick was the main reason why 'The Good Wife' has transcended from just another courtroom procedural to a can't-miss exploration of betrayal, love, and moral relativism.
Who will win: Margulies.
Mo's pick: Elisabeth Moss. She deserves the award not just for her work in 2010 but for four seasons of nuanced, uniformly impressive acting. Peggy has grown so much since she began her profressional career, as she proved in the brilliant episode 'The Suitcase,' in which Don Draper and his protegee left no corner of their friendship and professional partnership unexamined. As was the case with Peggy and Don, Moss gave as good as she got in that episode, and that's saying something.
Who will win: Margulies.
Best Actor, ComedyAlec Baldwin, '30 Rock'
Steve Carell, 'The Office'
Thomas Jane, 'Hung'
Matthew Morrison, 'Glee'
Jim Parsons, 'The Big Bang Theory'
Joel's pick: Jim Parsons stood out from the crowd this year, even in a season of 'Big Bang' that many felt was inconsistent. Yes, in a lot of ways, the show has become more about Parsons' character of Sheldon Cooper and his various tics, foibles, and condescensions. But Parsons embodies Sheldon so completely that people are still surprised that he's not a socially-awkward genius in real life.
Who will win: Alec Baldwin. Because it's too easy to give it to him every year.
Mo's pick: Jim Parsons deserves every bit of recognition he gets for his portrayal of Sheldon Cooper. Lately, it's been particularly hilarious to see Sheldon explore the world of "dating" though his relationship with Amy Farrah Fowler. No matter what the show's writers throw at this character, even a bizarre version of a love life, Parsons always finds a way to make it funny.
Who will win: Parsons.
Best Actress, ComedyToni Collette, 'United States of Tara'
Edie Falco, 'Nurse Jackie'
Tina Fey, '30 Rock'
Laura Linney, 'The Big C'
Lea Michele, 'Glee'
Joel's pick: There's a lot of argument over whether 'Nurse Jackie' is actually a comedy. But as I mentioned when Edie Falco won the Emmy for the show, it's a difficult show to classify. And Falco put in the best performance in what is a strong category this year. The desperation Jackie Peyton exhibits as her web of lies starts to collapse around her was etched all over Falco's face and demeanor during the show's second season, and she continued to be the improved show's centerpiece.
Who will win: Falco.
Mo's pick: 'United States of Tara' truly found its creative footing in its second season, and even though Tara added another personality to her repertoire, the show did a much better job of showcasing each alter when it came forward. Collette embodied each persona with wonderful specificity, even as she fearlessly depicted the challenging life of a woman who can't predict who'll she'll be from day to day.
Who will win: Linney.
Best Supporting ActorScott Caan, 'Hawaii Five-0'
Chris Noth, 'The Good Wife'
David Strathairn, 'Temple Grandin'
Eric Stonestreet, 'Modern Family'
Chris Colfer, 'Glee'
Joel's pick: It's difficult to judge these performances against each other because of the different genres, but since the HFPA wants to put all supporting performances into one category, I don't have a choice. I'll go out on a limb and pick Scott Caan; he's made Danno on 'Five-0' more than just a stereotypical sidekick. Intense and funny at the same time, Caan acts more like a second lead for Alex O'Loughlin's McGarrett to bounce off of than just a yes man. He's brought some real dramatic heft to what so far is a lightweight action procedural.
Who will win: Caan. He's just the sort of off-beat pick the foreign press likes to make every year.
Mo's pick: Eric Stonestreet. In a razor-sharp ensemble, Stonestreet still manages to stand out. Stonestreet is as skilled at physical comedy as he is at witty dialogue, and I never get tired of seeing Cameron interact with different members of 'Modern Family's' extended clan. No matter who you pair him with, he manages to find the heart and the wit of any scene.
Who will win: Noth.
Best Supporting ActressJane Lynch, 'Glee'
Julia Stiles, 'Dexter'
Kelly Macdonald, 'Boardwalk Empire'
Hope Davis, 'The Special Relationship'
Sofia Vergara, 'Modern Family'
Joel's pick: Jane Lynch. This is almost as big a slam dunk as her Emmy chances were. Sue Sylvester is the most popular character on one of the biggest break-out phenomenons TV has seen in years. And, while she played Sue with a sense of wicked joy, she did root the character in real humanity on the rare occasions when the story called for it.
Who will win: Lynch.
Mo's pick: Kelly Macdonald. What an odd category this is -- in the supporting actor and actress arenas, why can't they have separate categories for drama and comedy? In any event, Macdonald brought a quiet mastery to the role of Margaret Schroeder, a woman who slowly lost respect for herself even as her status in the world rose, thanks to her special friendship with a powerful politician. Her scenes with Steve Buscemi were masterpieces of subtlety, and though other actresses in this category have flashier roles, Macdonald's performance was consistently intriguing.
Who will win: Lynch.
Best Mini-Series or Made for TV Movie'The Pacific,' HBO
'Carlos,' Sundance
'Temple Grandin,' HBO
'You Don't Know Jack,' HBO
'The Pillars of the Earth,' Starz
Joel's pick: 'Temple Grandin.' The movie told the story of the autistic livestock expert by letting her experiences drive the story. There was no need for grand dramatic moments in the movie, because Grandin's life was interesting enough on its own, and the filmmakers respected that. Top-notch performances by Claire Danes, David Strathairn and Julia Ormond made the movie the best of a now-endangered genre.
Who will win: 'Temple Grandin.'
Mo's pick: 'The Pacific.' An old-school spectacle that managed to combine harrowing scenes of hand-to-hand combat with impressive orchestrations of choreographed violence, 'The Pacific' wasn't always easy to watch but it was deeply compelling, and the actors who portrayed the Marines depicted in the series brought an impressive degree of commitment to their roles.
Who will win: 'The Pacific.'
Best Actor in a Mini-Series or Made for TV MovieDennis Quaid, 'The Special Relationship'
Ian McShane, 'The Pillars of the Earth'
Édgar Ramírez, 'Carlos'
Al Pacino, 'You Don't Know Jack'
Idris Elba, 'Luther'
Joel's pick: Idris Elba. While 'Luther' took a bit of a wild turn in its last two episodes, Elba's intensity never wavered. Detective Chief Inspector John Luther was a tortured soul who pursued killers with the same maniacal zeal as the killers pursued their victims, and Elba did a fantastic job of portraying a man who was always balancing on the fine line between cop and vigilante.
Who will win: Al Pacino, just because everyone wants to see how loopy his speech will be.
Mo's pick: Idris Elba. 'Luther' was a series custom-made for Elba's intense brand of charisma. It could have been just another tiresome drama about a detective who breaks the rules, but Elba's performance took this U.K. cop show to another level and made the import a worthy addition to the U.S. television scene.
Who will win: Pacino.
Best Actress in a Mini-Series or Made for TV MovieClaire Danes, 'Temple Grandin'
Hayley Atwell, 'The Pillars of the Earth'
Jennifer Love Hewitt, 'The Client List'
Judi Dench, 'Return to Cranford'
Romola Garai, 'Emma'
Joel's pick: I'd love to pick Jennifer Love Hewitt here, just for poops and giggles. But Claire Danes did too good of a job playing Temple Grandin to ignore her in this category. It would have been easy for Danes to go over-the-top in playing the autisitic Grandin, especially in the scenes depicting her school years, when she had yet developed the skills to relate to the outside world. But Danes kept it under control, playing to Grandin's personality, which really made audiences connect with what could have been a difficult character to connect with.
Who will win: Danes.
Mo's pick: I must confess that I didn't see all of the entries in this category (and, let me be clear, I'm not sorry I didn't see 'The Client List'), but 'Temple Grandin' is the 2010 TV movie I'm most sorry I missed. By all accounts, Claire Danes deserves the award for her honest and moving portrayal of the title character.
Who will win: Danes.
Tell us: Who do you think will win (and whether someone else SHOULD win) at Sunday's Golden Globes?
Plus: Check out Golden Glove movie predictions at Moviefone.com
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