'American Idol' Predictions: Who's the Odds-On Favorite to Go All the Way?

by Hilary Rothing, posted Apr 19th 2011 4:00PM
What a difference a few weeks makes! The last time we examined the 'Idol' odds, Pia Toscano, Scotty McCreery and Casey Abrams were our top three picks. Since then, Casey was saved from early elimination which meant the judges hands were tied when Pia suddenly found herself at the very bottom of the bottom three. Meanwhile, Scotty McCreery continues to keep the country train a rollin', week after week.

Will Scotty's twang take him to the end or does James Durbin truly have a metal edge on the competition. And what about the two remaining ladies? Do Haley and Lauren stand a chance of breaking the boys' three year winning streak? Find out who oddsmakers recommend betting the house on and who has a better shot at winning the Lotto than 'American Idol.'

Odds courtesy of Bodog
Casey Abrams

Age: 20

Hometown: Idyllwild, Calif.

In a Nutshell: Casey has risen to elite status among the Top 7 via his fantastic vocals and keen musicianship.

Idol Odds: Once an early favorite among oddsmakers, Casey is now at 14-1, putting him in fifth place. His reliance on jazz standards to wow the judges (mainly Randy) may be lost on tween girl voters but this week's 21st century song night could freshen up his act.

Bottom Three: Once, saved after elimination

Haley Reinhart

Age: 20

Hometown: Wheeling, Ill.

In a Nutshell: Haley seemingly sneaked her way into the Top 13 but found herself on the outs straight away.

Idol Odds: Haley's had a rocky 'Idol' ride but has managed to keep the girl power going with Lauren Alaina, as the only remaining female contestants. Currently in 4th place with 10-1 odds, Haley needs to focus on besting Lauren, if voters are keen on keeping at least one girl in the game.

Bottom Three: Three times

Jacob Lusk

Age: 23

Compton, Calif.

In a Nutshell: Most of Jacob Lusk's performances leave both the audience, and the 23-year-old church singer, in tears.

Idol Odds: Now in sixth place with 20-1 odds, Jacob's stock has fallen quite a bit since his preachy challenge to America and his unwillingness to break out of ballads. 21st Century song night will be a make or break moment for Jacob.

Bottom Three: Once
James Durbin

Age: 22

Hometown: Santa Cruz, Calif.

In a Nutshell: Though he may not be a wild card pick, there's nothing tame about this unpredictable rocker and Adam Lambert-sound-alike.

Idol Odds: If the oddsmakers are right, James Durbin and Scotty McCreery are the ones to beat, this season. Sharing 2-1 odds with Scotty, James has yet to put in a "boring" performance, but his over-the-top, in your face antics could get old quick.
Lauren Alaina

Age: 16

Hometown: Rossville, Ga.

In a Nutshell: Ever since Steven Tyler dubbed her "the one," Lauren's been "the one" to beat. Only 16 years old, she's unshakably consistent with an irresistible, down home charm, to boot.

Idol Odds: With 3-1 odds, Lauren has a real shot at making it to the finale, especially since she and Haley Reinhart are the only remaining girls. Though oddsmakers give James Durbin the edge, I have a feeling Lauren will get a leg up in the weeks to come.

Scotty McCreery

Age: 16

Hometown: Huntsville, Ala.

In a Nutshell: Scotty's breezed through the competition for weeks on end, with his bottomless vocals anchored in country music.

Idol Odds: With only James in his way, Scotty's 2-1 odds aren't surprising, as he's never appeared in the bottom three (or even close, we suspect) and the judges praise him to the hilt, week after week. As far as we can tell, it's Scotty's competition to lose.
Stefano Langone (wild card)

Age: 21

Hometown: Kent, Wash.

In a Nutshell: Stefano's a piano man who can also get out from behind the ivories and woo an audience.

Idol Odds: With two consecutive trips to the bottom three, it's not shocking to find Stefano with 25-1 odds. His babyface looks and a breakout performance this week could improve those odds but if he doesn't do something worthy of the "pimp spot," Stefano's 'Idol' run will be over.

Bottom Three: Three times

Update: Eliminated

Paul McDonald

Age: 26

Hometown: Huntsville, Ala.

In a Nutshell: A rising star out of Nashville, Paul's unique tone and composed stage presence made him a judges' favorite. However, Paul's indie roots were often at odds with 'Idol's' mainstream agenda, costing him the competition but getting his band, 'The Grand Magnolias' some major exposure, in the process.

Update: Eliminated

Pia Toscano

Age: 22

Hometown: Howard Beach, N.Y.

In a Nutshell: Pia went largely unnoticed until she closed out the girls' Top 12 show with an incredible performance of The Pretenders' 'I'll Stand By You.' Quickly established as a top notch vocalist, her unexpected elimination rocked the foundations of the 'Idolverse' and is perhaps the most shocking in the competition's ten-year history.

Update: Eliminated

Naima Adedapo
(wild card)

Age: 26

Hometown: Milwaukee, Wis.

In a Nutshell: Naima's another emotional performer who the judges obviously felt America overlooked. Her run in the Top 13 was marked by a number of creative performances, which we can look forward to seeing more of on the 'Idol' tour.

Update: Eliminated

Thia Megia

Age: 16

Hometown: Hayward, Calif.

In a Nutshell: Former 'America's Got Talent' star Thia Megia knows what it takes to impress America week after week. Though she didn't make it to the end, Thia will be on tour with her fellow 'Idol' contestants, this summer.

UPDATE: Eliminated

Ashthon Jones (wild card)

Age: 24

Hometown: Valdosta, Ga.

In a Nutshell: Ashthon surprised herself, and many fans, by earning one of the judges' three wild card spots. However, she lacked the consistency to make to the Top 11 (and the tour)

If we were betting the farm on 'Idol,' Scotty McCreery would be our man, with Lauren Alaina a close second, followed by James Durbin. Oddsmakers see it a little differently, but there's one thing we all agree on; this week's elimination. Both Bodog and your trusty 'Idol' editor have Stefano, Jacob and Haley in the bottom three, with Stefano going home. Of course, we've yet to see what this trio brings to the table on 21st Century song night. Speaking of which, we want your input on what the kids should sing to turn this competition on its head!

'American Idol' airs Wednesdays and Thursdays at 8PM ET on Fox.

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Hopefully Caey will get booted off this week. He may be Jennifer's "idol" but I guarantee that if he wins no one will buy his albums. His voice just isn't that appealing, maybe he could earn some money singing in some strip mall in Vegas, but not for selling a Platinum album. Ever notice how huge his head is--literally? Someone needs to tell him that playing the part of the Wolfman isn't going to be cast anytime soon. He is...in a word... YUCKY! James Durbin is the only person who can beat out the remaining contestants--he deserves to win.

April 24 2011 at 2:01 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply

The talent this year has a barrage of choices. I am NOT a fan of 'acid rock', but think that James Durbin is going to make it all the way. Not sure why so many think Haley isn't any good. She's got what it takes with that gravely voice & barely, if ever, off key. She's cute & very talented. Come on people, give her a break. For once, 'listen' to the voices.
I've chosen the winner every year; except for the kabosh when Clay Aiken lost, so hopeful this year doesn't break my winning streak.
Most of these kids all have a chance at a career, as they've made it this far & will get picked up by a recording company.

April 24 2011 at 1:20 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply

Scotty's home town is Garner, NC, not Huntsville, AL. He continues to be the only "natural" singer in the current competition. He should be reined as the 2011 idol.


April 21 2011 at 3:39 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
Suzam48 @gmail.com

Oh and by the way why is casey still there.Why in the world did the judges save him? He is O.K. for a Musical or maybe brodway, show but not any way is he even in in my eyes a idol no offense but he annoy"s me aS A WANT TO BE .Up between James and Scotty?Go James WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

April 20 2011 at 5:20 PM Report abuse +1 rate up rate down Reply
Suzam48 @gmail.com

OH yea I think I"ts going to It"ll come down to Heavy metal James Durbin and Scott? because They are Altruistic In between what they sing rock or country LOL them both.But being a heavy metal wife of course GO JAMES !

April 20 2011 at 5:11 PM Report abuse +1 rate up rate down Reply
Suzam48 @gmail.com

OK voters I"ts going to be of course James

I believe no, girl has what the guy"s like james durban is ,and scotty the country boy witch I"m not much on country music? I believe the next Idol is going to be HEAVY METAL,OR country Music Scoty who has the best country muscian voise That I"ve heard since my late dad &mom were hear to hear.But being a wife of a heavy meatal rock band in the D>F>W> area of course I'm going with James Durbin since Rodney James Deo and Skid Row and Judiest Priest that James just Rules I"T"S going to come down between scott or James I can"t Help It U got another thing coming!GO James HE gives this older rocker the goose bumps! I think scotty is a hottie for the country girl"sBut best of luck to them both.

April 20 2011 at 4:54 PM Report abuse +1 rate up rate down Reply

I feel sorry for Karen...

April 19 2011 at 9:22 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply

Please grant my one wish and eliminate Casey this week!

April 19 2011 at 7:34 PM Report abuse +2 rate up rate down Reply
Dexter Morgan

Durbin leaves more versatility in the little boys room...than 1 trick pony will have in a lifetime......Lucky for the Garner Grit...all the grit teeny boppers are voting him through, and the judges are giving him a major pass as he has sung the S O S every week....

April 19 2011 at 5:23 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply

Pia's gone; now I'm just waiting for Paul to get the boot.

April 07 2011 at 10:23 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply

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