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July 25, 2014

Predictions and Trends

Oddsmakers pick a David for Idol's Winner

by Kristin Sample, posted May 16th 2008 7:02PM
David Cook It's getting closer. On Wednesday, America will crown the next Idol winner. Which David will it be? Of course, these two polar opposites have sparked some debate online as to who will win the competition.

Okay, is someone holding down Jeff Archuleta? According to E! Online, the oddmakers at BetCRIS.com have chosen David Cook to take the title Wednesday night. As per the online bookies, Cook has a 74% chance of winning this season of American Idol.

But E! Online makes a good point about Archuleta's young quick-dialing fanbase: "Of course, last we checked, Gambling 101 was not a part of a grade schooler's course load, meaning the actual voting demographic might not jibe with the oddmakers' pick and it still could be anybody's contest."

So, who are you voting for? Who do you think will win American Idol? Better yet, who do you think deserves to win American Idol this season? Check back with TV Squad for our review of the big night.

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Idol Polls: The Top 3

by Jason Hughes, posted May 16th 2008 9:21AM
Syesha MercadoWelcome back to our weekly American Idol polls round-up. Each week we look at various online polls that were conducted from the end of last week's results up to the performance show Tuesday. And then a few that were conducted after the performance show, but before the results were revealed.

This way we can analyze how the week's performances affected a contestant's overall popularity, which turns out to be not very much except in a few select cases anymore. Of course, it's all come down to the inevitable finale everyone expected. Unfortunately, it turned out to be rather anticlimactic though it would have been a lot of fun to see our girl Syesha sneak her way into the finale. What it does accomplish is setting up a finale that's almost impossible to predict. Both Davids have been at the top of the polls for weeks now, so it may come down to what they do Tuesday. We'll be back next week on Wednesday before the results to analyze the available polls at that time and see if we can predict the ultimate winner.

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Who should win American Idol?

by Jason Hughes, posted May 8th 2008 5:22PM
David ArchuletaAt this point an argument can be made for any of the Top 3 to win the whole thing. In fact, that's just what we're going to do. Now that we've said goodbye to so many other hopefuls we're down to a Final Three every bit as strong as Season Two's Kimberly Locke, Clay Aiken and Ruben Studdard, though drastically different. All three have proven that they have great voices. All three have proven that they have tremendous fan support. And all three seem to tap into a very different fan-base.

But who's the most deserving of the win? David Archuleta has wowed the judges and audience week after week with his polished vocals, but lacks a commanding stage presence. Syesha Mercado has played the role of the underdog throughout this competition, but has been coming on strong these past few weeks with passion and conviction. David Cook quickly emerged as a front-runner with his powerful rock vocals and innovative arrangements, but is he too limited to be the next Idol?

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Idol Polls: The Top 4

by Jason Hughes, posted May 8th 2008 2:02PM
Jason CastroWelcome back to our weekly American Idol polls round-up. Each week we look at various online polls that were conducted from the end of last week's results up to the performance show Tuesday. And then a few that were conducted after the performance show, but before the results were revealed.

This way we can analyze how the week's performances affected a contestant's overall popularity, which turns out to be not very much except in a few select cases anymore. Well, Syesha managed to take all those last place poll positions right into the Top 3 while Jason's miscues and forgotten lyrics made his fans forget to call in for him. It's been building toward a David-David finale, but if we believe that Jason has never placed number one in the votes, then that means Syesha has proven herself capable of beating the Davids head-to-head. Will the inevitable play out or will a David go home? We'll see next week.

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Idol Polls: The Top 5

by Jason Hughes, posted May 1st 2008 12:41PM
Brooke WhiteWelcome back to our weekly American Idol polls round-up. Each week we look at various online polls that were conducted from the end of last week's results up to the performance show Tuesday. And then a few that were conducted after the performance show, but before the results were revealed.

This way we can analyze how the week's performances affected a contestant's overall popularity, which turns out to be not very much except in a few select cases. After a fairly lackluster night in which he deserved at least a Bottom Two slot, Jason skated into the Top 4. The question now is can the comeback queen break into the axis of testosterone and keep her hopes alive. Syesha has been at the bottom of these polls for over two months now and despite occasionally Bottom Three/Two finishes she's still alive and in the Final Four. Has her time finally run out? She's the last woman standing; does that stand for anything? We'll see next week.

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Five annoying American Idol cliches

by Jason Hughes, posted Apr 29th 2008 1:20PM
American Idol JudgesThe fine folks over at AOL Television put together their "11 Biggest American Idol Cliches," but as the self-proclaimed guru of all things Idol, I figured my legions of fan (yes it's singular on purpose) are clamoring for my take. You have to figure that after nearly eight years on the air any show is going to rack up it's long, long list of annoying things.

And yet, I don't get nearly as annoyed when Jeff Probst yells "Come on in guys. [Team A] getting their first look at the new [Team B]. [Contestant Name] voted out at the last tribal council," even though he does it every single week. "[Team members], you're the last team to arrive. I'm sorry to tell you that you've both been eliminated from The Amazing Race." No big deal. So why do Ryan, Simon and the gang at American Idol drive us so crazy week after week?

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Idol Polls: The Top 6

by Jason Hughes, posted Apr 24th 2008 3:21PM
Carly SmithsonWelcome back to our weekly American Idol polls round-up. Each week we look at various online polls that were conducted from the end of last week's results up to the performance show Tuesday. And then a few that were conducted after the performance show, but before the results were revealed.

This way we can analyze how the week's performances affected a contestant's overall popularity, which turns out to be not very much except in a few select cases. The contestants certainly had an incredible challenge this week with the works of Andrew Lloyd Webber, but while some really rose to the challenge, it didn't seem to matter one bit when it came down to the final voting. Does this mean that the public has already decided who they like? It doesn't matter how well or horribly they do from here on out because voters have already decided who they like? Or was it just a fluke week where people assumed their favorites safer than they were?

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Idol's ratings down; what does that mean for TV?

by Jen Creer, posted Apr 23rd 2008 8:01AM
american idol042208The LA Times ran a piece yesterday stating that American Idol's ratings are down for the first time in its seven-year run, with a 7% lag this season. Hmm, seven years and a 7% lag-- does that mean the show's viewers are showing signs of a seven-year itch?

The Times story reported that shows typically show signs of a crack in the ratings veneer between seasons five and seven, which means that it is probably really smart for shows like Lost and Battlestar Galactica to determine their own ending dates, well before their ratings start to drop. Granted, a 7% decrease is not really anything to write home about. Simon, Paula, and Randy don't have to start paddling quite yet.

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The American Idol curse of the first

by Jason Hughes, posted Apr 22nd 2008 3:03PM
Michael JohnsIs there a real disadvantage to going first on American Idol or is it just speculation? I first brought this up when we went from our Top 16 to our Top 12 as all four eliminated contestants were among the first three performers on their respective nights. On the girls side, Asia'h and Kady sang first and second and were eliminated as quickly. Also eliminated were Luke, who sang first, and Danny who sang third. But it took the elimination of Michael Johns, considered by some one of the strongest competitors, a couple of weeks ago after he'd sung first to get the attention of major media.

How could it be that someone who'd never spent a moment in the bottom three could suddenly find himself on the chopping block?

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Idol Polls: The Top 7

by Jason Hughes, posted Apr 17th 2008 11:04AM
Kristy Lee CookWelcome back to our weekly American Idol polls round-up. Each week we look at various online polls that were conducted from the end of last week's results up to the performance show Tuesday. And then a few that were conducted after the performance show, but before the results were revealed.

This way we can analyze how the week's performances affected a contestant's overall popularity, which turns out to be not very much except in a few select cases. This week during the performance show, Simon indicated that the guys had won the night, and based on these polls it looks like American (at least the online portion of us) agrees with him. Is it really over for the girls? Can they see the writing on the walls? Will Brooke talk about it constantly droning on and on and on?

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Idol Polls: The Top 8

by Jason Hughes, posted Apr 13th 2008 8:01PM
Michael JohnsWelcome back to our weekly American Idol polls round-up. Each week we look at various online polls that were conducted from the end of last week's results up to the performance show Tuesday. And then a few that were conducted after the performance show, but before the results were revealed.

This way we can analyze how the week's performances affected a contestant's overall popularity, and how well the internet can predict eliminations. We'll also see how each contestant fared week to week in each poll, moving up or down. And we can see how amazingly wrong some of these polls can be. After all, most of them continue to have Syesha at the bottom and the closest Michael Johns came to the bottom of any poll was fifth place out of eight.

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Think you know who's going home on Idol? TiVo knows (maybe)!

by Jason Hughes, posted Apr 10th 2008 1:42PM
TiVo for DummiesWe all know that DialIdol has been predicting who gets voted off of American Idol for years by tracking busy signals on the phone lines for each contestant. Well, there's a new player in town. As reported on TMZ and elsewhere, TiVo has announced that for the past four weeks they've been analyzing their second-by-second viewer statistics to determine viewership for each contestant's performances. They can see which ones are getting viewed again and which ones are getting skipped altogether.

They say they've gotten the last four eliminations correct and now they're ready to say that TiVo predicts this week's American Idol elimination. You didn't think i was going to tell you here, did you? You'll have to wait to find out...

...after the jump (SPOILER WARNING--MAYBE!)

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Idol Polls: The Top 9

by Jason Hughes, posted Apr 4th 2008 10:06AM
Ramiele MalubayWelcome back to our weekly American Idol polls round-up. Each week we look at various online polls that were conducted from the end of last week's results up to the performance show Tuesday. And then a few that were conducted after the performance show, but before the results were revealed.

This way we can analyze how the week's performances affected a contestant's overall popularity, and how well the internet can predict eliminations. We'll also see how each contestant fared week to week in each poll, moving up or down. And we can see how amazingly wrong some of these polls can be. After all, none of them predicted little Ramiele going home, and most of them had Syesha at the bottom, who didn't even land in the bottom three.

What this means is that we need to spend less time voting online and more time dialing our phones. We have millions of thirteen-year old girls to compete with and I have carpal tunnel. I need your help!

Gallery: AI '08 Top 12

Brooke Top 12Carly Top 12David A Top 12David C Top 12Jason Top 12

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Ellen DeGeneres drops out of Idol Gives Back

by Jason Hughes, posted Apr 3rd 2008 2:20PM
Ellen DeGeneresAll you kids who were out buying up posterboard and markers to make your "Ellen DeGENEROUS" signs so you could wave them at next week's Idol Gives Back special need to stop before you waste all that paper. Think green, people. Due to a scheduling conflict, Access Hollywood says Ellen DeGeneress dropped out of co-hosting the special. The special is set to tape this Sunday, and apparently that conflicts with production on her own show.

I think we need to make a controversy out of this. I'm going to say she dropped because Danny Noriega was eliminated from the competition and she thinks it was a homophobic move by producers. Now, run with it! I'd help but I need to keep my schedule clear and wait for that phone call. I've always wanted to meet Ashley Tisdale -- er, I mean Robin Williams, and Bono and other big names like that. You know, like Annie Lennox, Miley--I mean, Heart! ... Dammit!

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Rumor alert: Dolly Parton Week song lists revealed?

by Jason Hughes, posted Apr 1st 2008 3:23PM
Dolly PartonWe got a tip from TV Squad reader 'Alice' detailing what 'she' claims is the set list for this week's performance show. Now, Entertainment Weekly has their own song list for "Dolly Parton Night." And the two lists couldn't be more different. EW's list comes from a "a pretty solid source" while mine comes from an anonymous person from Singapore or Zimbabwe named 'Alice' using a fake email address. But maybe Alice is the secret name Ryan Seacrest uses when he wants to feel special and he's got the real scoop. I'll know for sure he's legit if I get an offer to make millions of dollars just by transferring funds through my bank account. Ryan wouldn't lead me astray.

The celebrity mentor and theme is Dolly Parton (so they both got that much right), though reports have it that she refused to judge the contestants because she couldn't bring herself to be mean. I guess she decided that one Paula was enough. I'm glad to hear this as 90% of the celebrity guest judges do nothing but gush over everybody's performance, and I don't think I could take Dolly telling Kristy Lee Cook how she's such an amazing performer and could win the competition.

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