The week before the American Idol gigantic-mahunga-godzilla two-hour-plus finale aired, Simon Cowell predicted it would be a "ding-dong finale." Of course, that brilliant prognostication was hype personified, but Simon did his job. The finale drew 28.8 million viewers. Ironically, the buzz in the biz when those figures were revealed skewed it as a bad thing. It was the lowest-rated American Idol finale ever. But it still drew a tremendous amount of eyeballs, so why is it being characterized as a flop?

The answer is simply this: American Idol is competing with itself. It's expected to exceed its highs year after year, and generally speaking in television, that just doesn't happen. Older shows decline, and yes, even superhits like American Idol can't stay on top forever. Look at ER or CSI.